Opta Jabu Newsletter 18 March 2024: David v Goliath
A history of Nedbank Cup clashes between top-flight and non-top-flight sides.
The Nedbank Cup is the South African version of the world-famous FA Cup. After regional team leagues compete in the preliminary rounds in the first half of the season, the main draw is comprised of 32 teams - 16 Premier League Clubs, 8 National First Division Clubs, and 8 from SAFA's regional leagues. Like the English FA Cup, the “magic” of the tournament lies in the narrative of giant-killing potential - but what is the history of clashes between top-flight v non-top-flight sides?
A history
Altogether, 981 matches have been played in the PSL era FA Cup (Bob Save/ABSA/Nedbank Cups). For this newsletter, we’ve not included the matches played by regional teams in qualifying, but have included the final preliminary round of eight games introduced in the 2007/8 season. By normal football statistics standards, a match that goes into penalty shootouts is considered a draw, but an extra-time win/loss is a win/loss.
Just over one-third of the 981 matches (341) have involved Premiership teams against non-Premiership teams (35%). However, results heavily favour the Premiership, with nearly three-quarters of matches ending in a Premiership win.
Which teams face non-top-flight opposition more often?
Sundowns and Kaizer Chiefs have faced non-top-flight opposition more than any other sides. For Sundowns, that should be unsurprising since they have played more FA Cup games in the PSL era than any other side (93). That means 31% of their Cup clashes have come against lower-division teams. Chiefs have also been drawn 29 times against lower sides, although with a higher proportion (37% of their matches). Five of Pirates’ matches under Jose Riveiro have come against non-Premiership teams, but they are much lower overall (23 games) and by proportion (28%). SuperSport, AmaZulu & Bloemfontein Celtic round of the top five.
Which team has won more games against non-top-flight sides?
Sundowns (26) and Chiefs (22) also lead the count for wins against non-Premiership sides, with Pirates and SuperSport in third and fourth. Percentage-wise, the Brazilians have a 90% success rate in these ties, the best ratio of all teams with 10+ matches against lower-division sides. SuperSport (86%) also impress on the ratio, with Pirates and Celtic in joint-third (83%). Chiefs may have won the second most such matches, but their percentage is low. Interestingly Chiefs’ 76% win rate v lower sides closely mirrors the overall PSL win rate for top-flight sides (74%)
Which team has lost more games against non-top-flight sides (excluding pens)?
6 - Kaizer Chiefs
5 - AmaZulu
3 - Umtata Bush Bucks, Free State Stars, Chippa Utd, Polokwane City
7 - Kaizer Chiefs have been eliminated by a non-top-flight side in the FA Cup (Bob Save/ABSA/Nedbank Cups) on seven different occasions, more than any other top-flight side.
Penalty drama
In the drawn games above, Sundowns won one penalty shootout (v Seven Stars in the 97/98 semi-final) and lost the other (v Santos in the 96/97 second round). Chiefs’ sole draw (in 120 mins) v non-top-flight opposition came against Milford FC this season, which makes it the only time in PSL history they have been knocked out on penalties by a lower side. Pirates won their draws (v Thanda Royal Zulu in 2013/14 and v Dondol Stars last season). SuperSport progressed in their draw (v Batau FC in 2011/12) while AmaZulu won their shootout against Santos in 2016/17.
The quarter-final draw is scheduled for this evening, with Tuks as the only non-top-flight side remaining in the Last 8. You’s have to go back to 2011/12 for the last time all eight quarter-finalists were Premiership sides.